By Tam Kemabonta
When the PDP describes the APC and its leaders as “a hypocritical lot, wolves in sheep skin, devils who, through their utterances, stoke the fires of violence by night only to wear messianic robes in the morning to shed crocodile tears for their victims”; when the APC presidential candidate for the 2015 election says “God willing, by 2015, something will happen. They either conduct a free and fair election or they go a very disgraceful way. If what happened in 2011 should happen again in 2015, by the grace of God, the dog and the baboon would all be soaked in blood”; when an APC National leader says “It is going to be rig and roast. We are prepared, not to go to court but to drive you out …. For every action, there will be a reaction” and a PDP Governor says “those who want to take power through the back door will die. They will die! And the PDP will continue”; we can now see that there is fire on the mountain; and we need to run! Run! Run!
Elections in Nigeria are very divisive – with various factions scurrying through deadly means for whom would have unfettered access to the country’s petrodollars. The aftermaths are never good. In the aftermath of the 2011 elections, which was generally agreed to be free and fair about a 1000 people were killed and over 65000 displaced in postelection violence. But the political landscapes in Nigeria as February 14 looms have never been direr. And in a country were election and violence are almost synonymous and with the growing insurgency in the Northeast and the instability in the Niger Delta it became clear to all stake holders that something must be done to mitigate the impending bloodbath and possibly prevent State failure.
A Peace Agreement – colloquial referred to as the Abuja Accord – was signed in Abuja by the presidential candidates of the contending political parties; amid – albeit incongruously – hugs and smiles by all the stake holders involved. Even though the Abuja Accord is a step in the right direction in theory, one is led to take it with high levels of scepticism, when it comes to practical terms.
First the February elections are a clash of personalities and in a country where opposition is seen as an abomination that must be destroyed, nice words of peace on a piece of paper might do any one no good. The Aburi Accord between members of the Supreme Council and delegates from Eastern Nigeria signed in 1967 became null and void and led to the most devastating conflict Nigeria has ever faced because of the egomaniacal personalities of the two front line individuals involved – Ojukwu and Gowon. The Abuja Accords has a dangerous look alike and it would seem shares inherent characteristics with the Aburi Accords. If History should repeat itself on these terms God help us all.
Second, the Average Nigerian political mind is not matured enough. With over 35 million Nigerians that cannot read and write and 90% of the Nigerian people living under 2 dollars a day, the conditions are hostile to intellectual development – making a large portion of the Nigerian people susceptible to demagogy. Even the small but growing middle class and the political elite do not show much evidence of intellectual maturity. Current events of the ruling party using security forces – that should be apolitical – to intimidate the opposition, assassinations of political rivals and the frequent fist fights in the supposedly hallowed chambers of the National Assembly gives credence to this. With statistics like this, one finds it difficult not to notice the recipe for disaster when the election results are announced.
Finally, although one has to agree that, indeed, the Abuja Accord was a step in the right direction, but with members of the political elite making seditious comments against their rivals, transferring their families abroad to escape the pending storm and remaining tacit about pre-election violence all over the country, even after the accord was signed, one is led be sceptical about the true intentions of the ruling elite; and one is left to ponder the possibility of the Accord being a carefully orchestrated political move against an opponent.